On the episodic nature of derecho-producing convective systems in the United States

摘要

Convectively generated windstorms occur over broad temporal and spatial scales; however, one of the larger-scale and most intense of these windstorms has been given the name 'derecho'. This study illustrates the tendency for derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems to group together across the United States-forming a derecho series. The derecho series is recognized as any succession of derechos that develop within a similar synoptic environment with no more than 72 h separating individual events. A derecho dataset for the period 1994-2003 was assembled to investigate the groupings of these extremely damaging convective wind events. Results indicate that over 62% of the derechos in the dataset were members of a derecho series. On average, nearly six series affected the United States annually. Most derecho series consisted of two or three events; though, 14 series during the period of record contained four or more events. Two separate series involved nine derechos within a period of nine days. Analyses reveal that derecho series largely frequent regions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and the south-central Great Plains during May, June, and July. Results suggest that once a derecho occurred during May, June, or July, there was a 58% chance that this event was the first of a series of two or more, and about a 46% chance that this was the first of a derecho series consisting of three or more events. The derecho series climatology reveals that forecasters in regions frequented by derechos should be prepared for the probable regeneration of a derecho-producing convective system after an initial event occurs. Copyright (c) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.