Simulating temperature-dependent ecological processes at the sub-continental scale: male gypsy moth flight phenology as an example.

摘要

Male gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) flight phenology was simulated for the location of 1371 weather stations east of 100degree CW longitude and north of 35degree CN latitude in North America. The output of these simulations, based on average weather conditions from 1961 to 1990, was submitted to two map-interpolation methods: multiple regression and universal kriging. Multiple regression was found to be as accurate as universal kriging and demands less computing power. A map of the date of peak male gypsy moth flight was generated by universal kriging. This map itself constitutes a useful pest-management planning tool; in addition, the map delineates the potential range of the gypsy moth based on its seasonality at the northern edge of its current distribution in eastern North America. The simulation and map-interpolation methods described in this paper thus constitute an interesting approach to the study and monitoring of the ecological impacts of climate change and shifts in land-use patterns at the sub-continental level.