Grid convergence studies for the prediction of hurricane storm surge

摘要

The focus of this paper is a systematic determination of the relationship between grid resolution and errors associated with computations of hurricane storm surge. A grid structure is sought that provides the spatial resolution necessary to capture pertinent storm surge physics and does not overdiscretize. A set of numerical experiments simulating storm surge generation over 14 grid discretizations of idealized domains examines the influence of grid spacing, shoreline detail, coastline resolution and characteristics of the meteorological forcing on storm surge computations. Errors associated with a given grid are estimated using a Richardson-based error estimator. Analysis of the magnitude and location of estimated errors indicates that underresolution on the continental shelf leads to significant overprediction of the primary storm surge. In deeper waters, underresolution causes smearing or damping of the inverted barometer forcing function, which in turn results in underprediction of the surge elevation. In order to maintain a specified error level throughout the duration of the storm, the highest grid resolution is required on the continental shelf and particularly in nearshore areas. The disparity of discretization requirements between deep waters and coastal regions is best met using a graded grid. Application of the graded gridding strategy to the hindcast of Hurricane Camille reinforces the necessity of using a grid that has high levels of resolution in nearshore regions and areas of complex coastal geometry.