Dynamic risks modelling in ERP maintenance projects with FCM

摘要

Firms adopting Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) have to maintain their applications until the end of the system life span. Proper ERP maintenance is a condition that is necessary to achieve the benefits expected of these packages. However, too many ERP maintenance projects result in failure. Numerous risks affect the development of these projects due to their size, complexity and high chance of failure. Therefore, risks management in ERP maintenance projects is a critical issue. In order to help practitioners, this paper studies the risks in this kind of projects. Particularly, we have built Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) of ERP maintenance risks. The main advantage of FCM lies in them being capable of modelling complex phenomena based on the experts' perceptions. This tool models uncertainty and related events, imitating human reasoning. The tool proposed specifically models ERP maintenance project outcomes and risks perceptions, as well as their hidden interactions. Moreover, FCMs enable the developing of forecasting exercises through simulations. Practitioners would thus assess the joint influence of ERP maintenance risks on project outcomes. The results make known to practitioners which problems will arise if the risks are not treated, and how these will impact on the outcomes of projects. Therefore, the tool proposed would help them to manage ERP maintenance projects risks in a more effective and proactive way.