Economic Modeling of Livestock Disease Outbreaks

摘要

The paper surveys articles examining the economic impacts of a livestock diseaseoutbreak and focuses on modeling issues. One set of papers considers setting animport barrier when there is a livestock disease risk. They show that the level of arisk-based import barrier is sensitive to the impact of disease on economic welfare.The remaining articles focus on estimates of the economic impacts. An outbreak ismodeled in a U.S. agricultural sector model and shows the importance of lostexports and consumer response to the magnitude of losses. The final paper arguesfor de-composition of the welfare impacts. Lessons for future research includeimproved links to epidemiological research, improved inclusion of trade, extensionto non-agricultural sectors, and knowledge of consumer response.