Adversarial Risk Analysis

摘要

Classical game theory assumes a player's opponent is Mr. Spock-hyper-rational and capable of almost limitless logical calculation. Classical risk analysis assumes that the opponent is Nature-non-strategic and acting without an agenda. Both theories seem obviously wrong for anticipating the actions of opponents in settings such as counterterrorism, environmental regulation, auctions, or even any of the standard tropes of game theory, such as the Prisoner's Dilemma, Chicken, or the Hawksand- Doves game.