Cascading tripartite binomial classification plans to monitor European red mite (Acari,Tetranychidae) through a season; development and evaluation of a new methodology for pest monitoring

摘要

A monitoring protocol that schedules future sample bouts based on the outcome of density classification and expected population growth has been developed and applied to monitoring European red mite (Panonychus ulmiKoch) through a growing season. The monitoring protocol is based on concatenating through time tripartite sequential classification sampling plans that use binomial counts in lieu of complete enumeration. Binomial counts are scored positive when the number of organisms (mites) on a sample unit (leaves) exceeds a tally number. At each sample occasion the monitoring procedure leads to one of three possible decisions; intervene when the density is high, sample at the next sample occasion (after one week) when the density is intermediate, and sample at the second next sample occasion (after two weeks) when the density is low. Evaluation of the monitoring protocol under field conditions showed that the protocol with constituent tally 0 binomial count sampling plans was quite successful in timing intervention at the moment when population densities were about to exceed an established threshold that dictated intervention. The performance of this monitoring protocol and another protocol in which constituent sampling plans used binomial counts with a tally number of 4 were compared using simulation. Sampling plans that used a tally number of 4 were more precise than plans that used a tally number of 0. However, the overall performance of the monitoring protocol based on tally 0 sampling plans did not greatly differ from the monitoring protocol based on tally 4 sampling plans. Simulated performance of the tally 0 protocol was corroborated by field evaluation. The monitoring protocol based on tripartite classification required 30 to 45 percent fewer sample bouts than a protocol based on conventional sequential classification at weekly intervals. The monitoring protocol based on tripartite classification was also better able to schedule intervention when needed compared to a protocol based on conventional classification at two week intervals. Using the tally 0 protocol and current thresholds forP. ulmi, cumulative mite density was kept below 300 mite-days per leaf, which is well below levels regarded damaging. A tally 0 protocol with raised thresholds, developed on the basis of this finding, gave the best simulated performance of all protocols evaluated.