A 300-year history of Pacific Northwest windstorms inferred from tree rings

摘要

Hurricane-force winds are frequently allied with mid-latitude cyclones yet little is known about their historical timing and geographic extent over multiple centuries. This research addresses these issues by extending the historical record of major mid-latitude windstorms along North America's Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast using tree-ring data collected from old-growth (>350 years), wind-snapped trees sampled at seven coastal sites in Oregon, USA. Our objectives were to: 1) characterize historical windstorm regimes; 2) determine the relationship between high-wind events (HWEs) and phases of the PDO, ENSO and NP1; and 3) test the hypothesis that PNW HWEs have migrated northward. We based our study on the identification of tree-growth anomalies resulting from windstorm-induced canopy changes corresponding to documented (1880-2003) and projected HWEs (1701-1880). Our methods identified all major windstorm events recorded since the late 1800s and confirmed that variations in coastal tree-growth are weakly related to temperature, precipitation, and drought, but are significantly related to peak wind speeds. These results suggest wind-induced changes in canopy conditions control tree growth at all sites. Comparisons between the tree-ring record and the PDO, NPI, and ENSO revealed a significant positive correlation between HWEs and neutral to warm PDO conditions and a slightly weaker correlation with the NPI. ENSO events were not significantly related to the occurrence of HWEs. Latitudinal groupings of our sites revealed a gradual and non-significant northerly shift of HWEs until the late 19th century followed by a significant northward shift during the past 120 years. These results mark the application of dendroanemology as a method for characterizing windstorm regimes for multiple centuries.