Transportation GHG emissions in developing countries. The case of Lebanon

摘要

This paper evaluates the contribution of the road transportsector, in a typical small developing country, to global greenhousegas emissions. An inventory of transport emissions, using theIntergovernmental Panel on C1imate Change methodology, is presentedfor the base year l997. The Motor Vehicle Emission Inventory computerbased model, with inputs adjusted to the fleet and conditions athand, is used to predict contributions of different c1asses ofvehicles and to forecast the corresponding emissions for the year2020. Emissions reduction and the sensitivity to changes in factorssuch as fleet age, fleet technology, average speed and travel volumeare assessed. Scenarios are developed to explore the feasibility andbenefits of two different mitigation approaches. The first approachstresses the reduction potential of measures related to the fleet ageand new technology application. The second addresses theeffectiveness of transport planning and demand reduction inmitigating emissions. The air quality impact of these scenarios ispresented. The results bring to light the essence of the problem thattechnica1 improvements alone, in the existing fleet, will not be ableto offset impacts due to the growth in future travel demand. Policysettings to counterbalance the increase in emissions are investigatedin that context.