A new assessment method for demonstrating the sufficiency of the safety assessment and the safety margins of the geological disposal system

摘要

A new method for demonstrating the sufficiency of the safety assessment and safety margins of the geological disposal system has been developed. The method is based on an existing comprehensive sensitivity analysis method and can systematically identify the successful conditions, under which the dose rate does not exceed specified safety criteria, using analytical solutions for nuclide migration and the results of a statistical analysis. The successful conditions were identified using three major variables. Furthermore, the successful conditions at the level of factors or parameters were obtained using relational equations between the variables and the factors or parameters making up these variables. In this study, the method was applied to the safety assessment of the geological disposal of transuranic waste in Japan. Based on the system response characteristics obtained from analytical solutions and on the successful conditions, the classification of the analytical conditions, the sufficiency of the safety assessment and the safety margins of the disposal system were then demonstrated. A new assessment procedure incorporating this method into the existing safety assessment approach is proposed in this study. Using this procedure, it is possible to conduct a series of safety assessment activities in a logical manner.