Impact Point Prediction of the Ballistic Target Using a Flight Phase Discrimination

摘要

It is required to have the capability to predict the impact point of the ballistic target in order to assign the firing unit with high engagement possibility for the interception in the ballistic target defense systems. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to predict the impact point of the ballistic target using a flight phase discrimination algorithm given the insufficient measurements on the partial trajectory. The flight of a ballistic target is composed of a boost phase and a ballistic phase with different dynamics. The flight phase is discriminated by using the normalized innovation distance between measurements and a priori estimated measurements. The threshold and tolerance in the flight phase discrimination are determined from the probabilistic characteristics of the estimation error. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to verify the proposed method.