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Anticipating the Unanticipated-Unintended Consequences of Scientific and Technological Purposive Actions

机译:预测科学和技术目的行动的意外后果

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摘要

As science and technology change our world, anticipating the unintended consequences becomes critical. This article presents a framework for identifying unintended consequences, especially unanticipated-unintended consequences, and prioritizing the necessary actions to mitigate or adapt. Content for the framework, and the distinctions among the anticipated-intended, anticipated-unintended, and unanticipated-unintended consequences, are generated with four scenario types: evolution over time, market-saturation, interventions in tightly coupled systems, and existential risk of human extinction. To validate the framework, each scenario type is applied to historical and emerging technologies to anticipate the unintended consequences, including the causes, initiators, effects, actions to mitigate or adapt, and unmet obligations to future generations.
机译:随着科学技术改变我们的世界,预测意想不到的后果变得至关重要。本文提供了一个框架,用于识别意外后果,尤其是意外后果,并确定减轻或适应的必要措施的优先级。该框架的内容,以及预期-无意和意外-意外后果之间的区别,由四种情景类型产生:随时间推移的演变、市场饱和、对紧密耦合系统的干预以及人类灭绝的生存风险。为了验证该框架,每种情景类型都应用于历史和新兴技术,以预测意外后果,包括原因、发起因素、影响、减轻或适应的行动,以及对子孙后代未履行的义务。

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