ABSTRACT:The mean annual flow at a damsite during a water project yield study of several decades may differ considerably from the mean flow of several hundred years. The frequency of the most severe droughts of record may be much different than apparent from the historical record as well. Dendrohydrology and the Hurst Phenomenon provide means to evaluate the validity of the study period for project reliability analysis. The most severe hydrologic drought (1928–1934) affecting the watersheds of the Sacramento River and tributaries in Northern California during the 75‐year period 1906–1980 was also the worst drought in 421 years (1560–1980). In contrast, the most severe drought (1945–1951) in the Santa Ynez River watershed in Santa Barbara County, California, during the 62‐year period 1918–1979 was the ninth worst drought in 443 years (1537–1979). Thus, in one case the drought risk indicated by the dendrohydrologic time series would actually be less; in the other, actual risk would be greater than perceived from the historical record. In the absence of a dendrohydrologic prehistoric time series, Hurst Phenomena would have provided clues to this outcome. Hurstian plotting of the accumulated deviation from the mean for long time series facilitates observation of the wet‐dry regime of the examples and identification of characteristics that should be accounted for in water dev
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