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Multiobjective Risk‐Impact Analysis Method

机译:多目标风险影响分析方法

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This paper integrates two methodologies of risk and impact analysis—the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM) and the multiobjective, multistage impact analysis method (MMIAM). The PMRM, in an effort to overcome the difficulties created by commensurating extreme events that have catastrophic impacts with those that have more frequent but less harmful consequences, introduces the use of conditional expectations for different regimes of probabilities and damages. The MMIAM is a multiobjective decisionmaking method for impact analysis which explicitly develops trade‐offs among different objectives at different stages or periods. Decision makers who must act under conditions of extreme risk and uncertainty often find that they are more interested in knowing “what not to do” than they are in optimizing their current objectives (the more traditional aim of decision‐making methodologies). This paper focuses on a way to answer their needs, in which major elements of both the PMRM and the MMIAM are combined in a new, integrated methodology, termed here the multiobjective risk‐impact analysis method (MRIAM). The new methodology incorporates risk and impact analysis within a dynamic multiobjective decision‐making framework. To demonstrate the usefulness of the integrated methodology, an example problem concerning the environmental effects of pollutant emissions over a number of years is formulated, solved,
机译:本文整合了两种风险和影响分析方法——分区多目标风险法(PMRM)和多目标、多阶段影响分析法(MMIAM)。PMRM为了克服将具有灾难性影响的极端事件与具有更频繁但危害较小的极端事件相称而造成的困难,对不同的概率和损害制度引入了有条件的期望。MMIAM是一种用于影响分析的多目标决策方法,它明确地在不同阶段或时期的不同目标之间进行权衡。必须在极端风险和不确定性条件下采取行动的决策者经常发现,他们更感兴趣的是知道“不该做什么”,而不是优化他们当前的目标(决策方法的更传统目标)。本文重点介绍一种满足他们需求的方法,其中 PMRM 和 MMIAM 的主要元素被组合成一种新的综合方法,这里称为多目标风险影响分析方法 (MRIAM)。新方法将风险和影响分析纳入动态的多目标决策框架中。为了证明综合方法的有用性,制定并解决了一个关于污染物排放在若干年内对环境影响的示例问题,

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