SUGAR FORECASTING TECHNIQUES IN SOUTH AFRICA: RESEARCH AND APPLICATION

摘要

THE ACCURACY of traditional methods for sugarcane crop estimation in South Africa has been called into question on numerous occasions. A range of technologies that could potentially improve accuracy and lead-time of crop forecasts is being evaluated by the SA Sugar Association. These technologies include: improved area mapping and integration of data with field maps; development and use of crop models, which simulate yield, based on observed and forecasted weather records; and use of remote sensing technology for monitoring harvest schedules and changes in crop condition through time. This paper illustrates how these technologies are playing an important role in improving crop estimates and outlines a number of challenges to make them operational. Integration of the technologies will be a key to improving forecast accuracy while appropriate business models for implementation and incentives for use are required for successful adoption.