Uncertainty analysis: one-dimensional radioactive nuclide transport in a single fractured media

摘要

Uncertainty analysis of radioactive nuclide transport for one-dimensional single fracture has been studied. First order differential analysis is applied to introduce analytical form of output expectation and variance for contaminant transport equation, by regarding uncertainty of dispersion coefficient and retardation factor. Breakthrough curve of dimensionless concentration is demonstrated by taking I-129 as radioactive nuclide in fracture transport. It is possible to pick up critical ranges in spatial and temporal domain from the output variance. From the viewpoint of preliminary performance assessment for nuclear waste disposal the parameter importance in such system can be substantially measured in the site characterization in future.