Ensemble-Based Analysis of the May 2010 Extreme Rainfall in Tennessee and Kentucky

摘要

From 1 to 3 May 2010, persistent heavy rainfall occurred in the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys due to two successive quasi-stationary mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), with locations in central Tennessee accumulating more than 483mm of rain, and the city of Nashville experiencing a historic flash flood. This study uses operational global ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to diagnose atmospheric processes and assess forecast uncertainty in this event. Several ensemble analysis methods are used to examine the processes that led to the development and maintenance of this precipitation system. Differences between ensemble members that correctly predicted heavy precipitation and those that did not were determined, in order to pinpoint the processes that were favorable or detrimental to the system's development. Statistical analysis was used to determine how synoptic-scale flows were correlated to 5-day area-averaged precipitation. The precipitation throughout Nashville and the surrounding areas occurred ahead of an upper-level trough located over the central United States. The distribution of precipitation was found to be closely related to the strength of this trough and an associated surface cyclone. In particular, when the upper-level trough was elongated, the surface cyclone remained weaker with a narrower low-level jet from the south. This caused the plume of moisture from the Caribbean Sea to be concentrated over Tennessee and Kentucky, where, in conjunction with focused ascent, heavy rain fell. Relatively small differences in the wind and pressure fields led to important differences in the precipitation forecasts and highlighted some of the uncertainties associated with predicting this extreme rainfall event.