ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT MODELLING FOR A WESTERN BALKANS MOBILITY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO BASED ON THE ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION ENERGY MIX

摘要

Electric vehicles (EVs) are predicted to be a major part of Europe's future mobility framework and the amount of electricity used by them, influenced by variations in the average driving habits, in conjunction with the local energy mix, will have a significant effect on the local GHG (Greenhouse gasses) emissions footprint. Seeing as the Western Balkans 6 (WB6) have been trailing behind larger Western European economies in terms of their electrical energy producing solutions, the level of life-cycle emissions from EVs in the WB6 will greatly depend on how the electricity used to recharge these vehicles per their normal function, is produced. Considering this, the purpose of this paper was to analyse the trend of increasing production of EVs and their proliferation in traffic in the WB6, and model their GHG emissions based on a proposed development scenario that takes from energy strategic planning in the WB6, in order to check if the tendency to use electricity to power cars rather than fossil fuels is entirely justified. The findings indicate a rate of growth for EVs share on the personal vehicle market by 2050, and an increase in their mileage, however with an insignificantly small rise to the total CO2 emission of the LDV (light-duty vehicle) fleet, a disparity which is a consequence of the improved technology, greater share of biofuels in liquid and gaseous fuels and partial de-carbonisation of the energy sector in the WB6.