June shipments, using estimates and licenses, continued a downward trend, albeit slowly. The May to June transition indicated falling domestic shipments and a slight increase in imports but the market share split remained well within the normal range. Early returns on import licenses for July indicate that pandemic-influenced order patterns are upon us. Domestic shipments should, based on our consumption model, continue to decline as construction work-in-progress is completed and new starts either stay in a holding pattern or get cancelled. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) Architectural Billings Index, a 9-12 month leading indicator for construction spending, suggests that architectural activity is very slow which doesn’t bode well for construction spending in the time frame. This is too far in the future to be reflected in order books or import levels at this point. According to the AIA press release, while larger jobs are being delayed or cancelled, smaller projects that were on the back-burner have moved to the construction mode.
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