Policy options for digital infrastructure strategies: A simulation model for affordable universal broadband in Africa

摘要

Task 9c of the Sustainable Development Goals aims to provide universal affordable broadband globally by 2030. However, a lack of data, combined with few independent and scientifically reproducible assessments, make it challenging for governments to make strategic choices to achieve this target. Therefore, new research approaches are required to support decision evaluation. This paper demonstrates an innovative method which addresses data and model uncertainty by developing open-source software to explore affordable universal broadband strategies, using a scenario-based hypothetical mobile operator. Targets being considered by the United Nations' Broadband Commission are evaluated, with the financial costs of different infrastructure decisions quantified for the whole of the African continent. The results suggest that 'leapfrogging' to 4G is more cost efficient than 3G for providing universal broadband, with savings between 7 and 57 for 10 GB/Month and 20-47 for 30 GB/Month. The baseline 4G cost for connecting all unconnected and underserved users across Africa is $0.4 trillion for 10 GB/Month and $0.7-1 trillion for 30 GB/Month.