Applying Fog Analysis Tool to AFSIM Multi-Domain CLASS Scenarios

摘要

Military leaders must consider uncertainty in decision making to accomplish mission objectives. Wargames and military simulations model real-world scenarios to understand potential outcomes for alternative courses of action to support decision making. This research applies the Fog Analysis Tool (FAT) (Tryhorn et al. 2021) to Cyber Land Air Sea Space (CLASS) scenarios for the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM). The CLASS scenario structure supports fog analysis in multi-domain operations within AFSIM scenarios. The CLASS result trends support the hypothesis that increasing fog effect levels disrupts the decisionmaking and tasking processes for all warfighting domains. A crossover event occurs from success to failure for each fog effect as the level increases for all CLASS scenarios. Therefore, FAT should be used for incorporating fog in multi-domain wargame scenarios to aid commanders in course of action analysis and planners in modifying scenario difficulty.