Effects of temperature on incidence of bacillary dysentery in a temperate continental arid climate city in northwest China

摘要

The effect of ambient temperature on health continues to draw more and more attention with the global warming. Bacillary dysentery (BD) is a major global environmental health issue and affected by temperature and other environmental variables. In the current study, we evaluated the effect of temperature on the incidence of BD from January 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2011 in Jiayu-guan, a temperate continental arid climate city in the Hexi Corridor of northwest China. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was performed to evaluate the lag effect of temperature on BD up to 30 days. Results showed the risk of BD increased with temperature significantly, especially after 8 ℃. The maximum risk of BD was observed at extreme high temperature (29 ℃). The effect of temperature on BD risk was significantly divided into short-term effect at lag 5 days and long-term effect at lag 30 days. Age 15 years and males showed acute short-term effect at lag 0 and light long-term effect at lag 16 days.