Trend Analysis of Water Inflow Into the Dam Reservoirs Under Future Conditions Predicted By Dynamic NAR and NARX Models

摘要

Abstract Nowadays, the use of artificial intelligence is extended to various scientific and engineering fields including water management and planning. This study investigates the performance of dynamic artificial neural network (ANN) models in prediction of water inflow into the Sefidruod dam reservoir (Iran). For this purpose, first, the discharge time series of tributaries of the Sefidruod dam were analyzed for trends for a 47?year time period (1967 to 2014) using parametric regression and non-parametric Mann–Kendall tests considering independence, short-term, and long-term persistence assumptions. Also, the homogeneity of the data was investigated using three statistical tests including Cumulative Deviations, Worsley's Likelihood Ratio, and Bayesian inference. Then, the inflow discharges into the reservoir of Sefidruod dam from GhezelOzan and Shahroud tributaries were simulated using dynamic Nonlinear Auto-Regressive (NAR) and Nonlinear Auto-Regressive with exogenous input (NARX) models. Further, water inflow values of both rivers were predicted for the next 5?years in future using dynamic NAR and NARX models. Finally, the simulated results were tested for trends. Obtained results showed a significant decreasing trend in both rivers. Results also showed a continuous downward trend for the following 5-year period predicted by NAR and NARX models. In addition, it was found that the results obtained by the NARX model were less accurate compared to those by the NAR model.