Selective threat assessment in a disruptive urban nuclear event

摘要

After a nuclear accident in a small noncommercial reactor, an at-risk urban population faces the implementation of the initial phase of a response plan. In this study important variables of this equation such as: environmental exposure (the threat), the potentially affected population, social vulnerability, preferential direction of contamination and interaction with climatic conditions are conservatively evaluated by means of a computer simulation. Although the disruptive event befalls the general population, a vulnerable subpopulation was chosen to be the object of observation. School-age children and young people in two age groups are subject to protective actions to mitigate the effects of exposure and reduce the risk of developing thyroid cancer. From a conservative perspective, these elements are dealt with in a clear and direct way in order to provide an initial support to decision makers facing early phase of the response.