Evaluation and Analysis of Electric Power in China Based on the ARMA Model

摘要

With the rapid development of China’s economy, power demand has been closely linked with economic development in order to analyze and predict the future power situation in China. Based on the historical data of China’s electricity consumption, this paper analyzes the data characteristics of China’s electricity consumption by using Eviews software. The long-term trend of power consumption sequence is eliminated by fitting the regression curve, and then the residual sequence is analyzed and identified according to the relevant theory of time series. Using the data of China’s power demand from 2004 to 2019, the ARMA time series model is used to analyze China’s future power situation finally according to the test statistics of the model. Finally, the exponential regression ARMA model is selected to predict China’s electricity consumption. The index regression analysis method extracts the long-term characteristic information of the sequence, which is conducive to the stability processing and empirical analysis of long-term prediction. The result predicts China’s power demand in 2020 more accurately, which can provide a reference for the future productivity layout of China’s power.