An Integrated Assessment of Emissions, Air Quality, and Public Health Impacts of China?s Transition to Electric Vehicles

摘要

Electric vehicles (EVs) are a promising pathway toproviding cleaner personal mobility. China provides substantialsupports to increase EV market share. This study provides anextensive analysis of the currently unclear environmental and healthbenefits of these incentives at the provincial level. EVs in Chinahave modest cradle-to-gate CO2benefits (on average 29)compared to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles(ICEVs), but have similar carbon emissions relative to hybridelectric vehicles. Well-to-wheel air pollutant emissions assessmentshows that emissions associated with ICEVs are mainly fromgasoline production, not the tailpipe, suggesting tighter emissionscontrols on refineries are needed to combat air pollution problemseffectively. By integrating a vehiclefleet model into policy scenarioanalysis, we quantify the policy impacts associated with the passenger vehicles in the major Chinese provinces: broader EVpenetration, especially combined with cleaner power generation, could deliver greater air quality and health benefits, but notnecessarily significant climate change mitigation. The total value to society of the climate and mortality benefits in 2030 is found tobe comparable to a prior estimate of the EV policy's economic costs