Predicting long-term sickness absence among retail workers after four days of sick-listing

摘要

Objective This study tested and validated an existing tool for its ability to predict the risk of long-term (ie, ≥6 weeks) sickness absence (LTSA) after four days of sick-listing. Methods A 9-item tool is completed online on the fourth day of sick-listing. The tool was tested in a sample (N=13 597) of food retail workers who reported sick between March and May 2017. It was validated in a new sample (N=104 698) of workers (83 retail) who reported sick between January 2020 and April 2021. LTSA risk predictions were calibrated with the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test; non-significant H-L P-values indicated adequate calibration. Discrimination between workers with and without LTSA was investigated with the area (AUC) under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results The data of 2203 (16) workers in the test sample and 14 226 (13) workers in the validation sample was available for analysis. In the test sample, the tool together with age and sex predicted LTSA (H-L test P=0.59) and discriminated between workers with and without LTSA AUC 0.85, 95 confidence interval (CI) 0.83–0.87. In the validation sample, LTSA risk predictions were adequate (H-L test P=0.13) and discrimination was excellent (AUC 0.91, 95 CI 0.90–0.92). The ROC curve had an optimal cut-off at a predicted 36 LTSA risk, with sensitivity 0.85 and specificity 0.83. Conclusion The existing 9-item tool can be used to invite sick-listed retail workers with a ≥36 LTSA risk for expedited consultations. Further studies are needed to determine LTSA cut-off risks for other economic sectors. ? 2022, Nordic Association of Occupational Safety and Health. All rights reserved.