Water Security in an Uncertain Future: Contrasting Realities from an Availability-Demand Perspective

摘要

Abstract A better understanding of climate change impacts on water security beyond climate variability is of critical importance to tackle water vulnerabilities exacerbated by increasing extreme weather events. Thus, studies on water security in a changing climate help decision-makers to overcome existing political and socioeconomic challenges worldwide. In this study, future water security of two basins was assessed under climate change and demand scenarios by contrasting water demand with probabilistic levels of water availability to identify possible drivers of insecurity. The Guariroba and Jaguari basins are the main sources for supplying water to Campo Grande city and the S?o Paulo Metropolitan Region, respectively. The physically-based SWAT+?model was calibrated to simulate the basins’ hydrological response to three climate change scenarios from a CMIP6 multimodel ensemble: SSP2-4.5 (medium forcing), SSP3-7.0 (high forcing), and SSP5-8.5 (high forcing). The Guariroba basin already presented scarcity indices close to the security threshold in the baseline period. The imbalance between availability and demand was the main driver of water insecurity in this basin. Despite showing a low scarcity risk in the Jaguari basin in the baseline, this risk considerably increased in the future periods due to a decrease in precipitation. A reduction in water demand of 20 by 2070 was not sufficient to improve water security in both basins. These findings indicate that a lack of policies for adapting demand to a changing availability exacerbates hydrological droughts. More stringent measures to balance water availability and demand are critical for improving water security in an uncertain future.