Has the Anthropocene affected the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones? Evidence from Mascarene Islands historical records (southwestern Indian Ocean)

摘要

We present a historical record of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs, 85 events) over the Mascarene Islands (southern Indian Ocean) since the 17th century to evaluate interannual-to-decadal-scale changes in past TC variability, from the cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present warming world, and to contextualize present and future changes in risk estimates. For the Mascarene Islands, we observe a mean fourfold increase in regional landfalling TCs, beginning around 1940. Before this date, the historical TC data exhibit clear decadal cycles, which mirror solar radiative forcing. This historical record demonstrates how enhanced understanding of past variability can improve baseline risk estimates of TCs making landfall in the SW Indian Ocean basin.