Modeling Spread of HIV as a Result of Social Maladjustment

摘要

The aim of the research is to develop methods for evaluation of effectiveness of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) spread counteraction measures for Russia. The regional inequity in HIV prevalence is closely linked with the inequity in prevalence of alcohol and drug abuse which can be considered as a value of social maladjustment in population. Taking into account influence of these processes on formation of HIV high-risk groups permits to describe the regional inequity in epidemic proportions and evaluate effectiveness of counteraction measures. The social-epidemiological model of HIV spread and the problem of model parameter identification by the data of Russian regions are examined in the paper.