The Development Scenarios and Environmental Impacts of China's Aluminum Industry: Implications of Import and Export Transition

摘要

Aluminum is widely used in buildings, transportation, and home appliances. However, primary aluminum production is a resource, energy, and emission-intensive industrial process. As the world's largest aluminum producer, the aluminum industry (ALD) in China faces tremendous pressure on environmental protection. This study combines material flow analysis and scenario analysis to investigate the potential of resource conservation, energy saving, and emission reduction for China's ALD under the import and export trade transition. The results show China's per capita aluminum stock will follow a logistic curve to reach 415 kg/capita by 2030. However, unlike the continued build-up of stocks, domestic demand for aluminum will peak at 44 million tons (MT) in 2025 and fall to 36 MT in 2030. The scenario analysis reveals that China's primary aluminum output could peak in 2025 at around 52 MT if the restrictions are not implemented (Scenario A). Compared to Scenario A, demand for primary aluminum is effectively limited in Scenarios B and C where exports of aluminum products are reduced. Correspondingly, both scenarios also have obvious benefits in reducing the environmental load of China's ALD. Besides, if hydropower used in aluminum electrolysis increases to 25% by 2030, the total GHG emissions in 2030 will be reduced by 12%. Therefore, promoting import/export and energy mix transformation can become an essential means for the sustainable development of China's ALD.