Mechanical tube shipments in 2020 are projected to end the year totaling 2.9 million tons which is down about 12% from 2019. Of the 400,000 ton deficit, about 160,000 tons are seamless which is related to the drop off in oil and gas. The remainder is driven by declines in manufacturing related to Covid. Next year, we expect a recovery of almost 8% driven by manufacturing recovery and increasing oil and gas activity. If the economy recovers more quickly due to recent positive vaccine news, we could see stronger growth on both the energy and manufacturing consuming sectors. As one example, last month, we commented on robust 2020 farm income driven by federal payments but also noted that crop prices were increasing faster than expected and that forecasts were for strong farm income in 2021 as well. As we noted in the standard pipe section, we are baking in some stimulus spending which is expected to aid the recovery.
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