Analysis of current and future habitat distribution models for the African Spurred Tortoise, Centrochelys sulcata

摘要

It is widely assumed that future climatic conditions, alongside their effect on local environments, will result in either a change in how species use their habitats or in a shift in species distributions. The Sahel region of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to experience drastic changes in its average aridity and overall climate in the coming decades. Herein we use Suitability Distribution Models (SDM) to model the potential range shift in the suitable habitat for Centrochelys sulcata, an IUCN listed Endangered tortoise species found in the arid Sahel, between current day and 2070 under projected climate change. Model predictions suggest an expansion of habitat with suitable climate conditions by 2070, albeit alongside an overall decrease in the predicted quality of available habitat within the newly projected range. Based on these predictions, we provide suggestions on priority con-servation areas critical for the long-term conservation of this species under the projected climate change scenario as well as call for improved sampling throughout the species current distribution.