Method for Inferring the Design Value of the Resistance Based on Probabilistic Model

摘要

Methods for inferring the design value of the resistance based on test have long been studied extensively, but the existing methods have several limitations on unified guarantee rate ensurance and reliability control. Firstly, the rationales and deficiencies of the present methods in ISO 2394 : 2015 and EN 1990 : 2002 were generalized. Secondly, in view of the disadvantages, a new inferring method combining the probability model of resistance with statistical approach was put forward. The proposed method established a relationship among design resistance, probability characteristics of known factors, and statistical results of unknown factors and possessed a rigorous and sound theoretical basis on both conditions that the coefficient of variation of model uncertainty was unknown and full known. Lastly, a contrast work was carried out between the Eurocode method and the proposed method; the results showed that the latter method had a higher inferring value, which means a better inferring result.