Sustainability Measurement of Transportation Systems in China: A System-Based Bayesian Network Approach

摘要

Sustainability has been a challenging issue in the transportation industry, which necessitates obtaining a better measurement of transport sustainability performance. To appropriately measure performance, this paper presents a hybrid approach based on the hierarchical Bayesian network model (BNM) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The proposed BNM encompasses social, economic, environmental, and technological dimensions, where each dimension consists of various subdivisions. The Conditional Probability Table of the model is determined by PCA. Twenty-three sustainable transportation indicators involved in the different stages of traffic management are used to kick off the calculation and probability propagation. The results show that the overall transport sustainability of the selected cities is generally at a medium level, indicating that there is much room for further improvement. The sustainability-economic coupling analysis exhibits the nonlinear relationship between sustainability and economic level, revealing that economic growth does not necessarily lead to the enhancement of the transport sustainability. Additionally, the sensitivity analysis reveals that “Accessibility,” “Serviceability,” “Reliability,” and “Innovation” demonstrate an upward trend, indicating their great effect on transportation sustainability. Last, the policy implications of this study can not only offer a solution for the current needs of transportation systems but also serve as more transparent decision-making to develop a sustainable transportation system in the future.