Kazakh crude production could hit 110mn t/yr (2.2mn b/d) by 2030 — 40mn t/yr less than previous forecasts, according to the government. This is a “pessimistic” forecast Kazakh oil and gas minister Uzakbai Karabalin said on 18 September during a presentation about efficient management of natural resources and use of income from the commodities sector. An “optimistic” scenario still envisages output of 150mn-180mn t/yr by 2030, provided production from Kazakhstan’s three largest projects — Kashagan, Karachaganak and Tengiz — increases in line with initial expectations, he says. Hydrocarbon resources estimated at 134mn t have been discovered at fields other than Kashagan in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian since 2000.
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