The market is struggling for direction. In the east, Indian importers face a loss at current cfr values for DAP. There is no shortage of demand - Markfed issued a very large tender this week for 350,000t DAP plus SSP and NPKs and many forecast a DAP shortage. But Indian import demand has been stymied by stringent imposition of FCO regulations, a lack of supply and the MRP/subsidy effectively capping any further significant increase in cfr values. Good rains auger well for rabi consumption, and barring economic catastrophe India should buy heavily through into Q1. Indian sources say that no formal MRP revision is likely, which limits the players who can import. But MPC Saudi Arabia and Jordan, facing the loss of 350,000t of DAP business in Ethiopia, will likely continue to feed product east into the Indian subcontinent to meet this demand.
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