Date of minimum of the 'protracted' solar cycle 23

摘要

We offer an interpretation of the now widely discussed protracted onset of the epoch of solar activity minimum after cycle 23. The interpretation appeals to the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule, but in the context of a new statistical quantity-the product of the cycle amplitude by its duration. Considering this quantity, which has the same physical meaning as that of the integrated characteristic used by Gnevyshev and Ohl, yields a probable estimate for the onset of the minimum of the current cycle in the interval 2009.0-2012.4.