Does demographic entrapment challenge the two-child paradigm?

摘要

Local demographic entrapment has been discussed informally for many years, but is taboo to the UN agencies and to much of academia. There are also indications that the world as a whole may be demographically trapped in that global per capita grain production is falling. Arguments for and against recognizing entrapment are discussed. Policy implications of entrapment are outlined in the light of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD). The case for a one-child world is argued. Carrying capacity, disentrapment, the two-child paradigm, abortion, Rwanda and North/South tensions are considered.