Price Outlook, December 2011

摘要

BMI View: We have maintained our 2012 average price forecast for Brent and WTI at US$102/bbl and US$93.50/bbl respectively. The market is likely to fnd support at these levels, despite the deteriorating macroeconomic outlook, because of a continued supply defcit in the global oil market. In the short term, Brent is likely to drift lower as Libyan volumes return, and WTI may correct downwards from its peak of US$102 as inventories at Cushing continue to build. In 2012 and 2013, we anticipate WTI will fnd support at a higher level than 2011, as Seaway begins to relieve some of the glut at Cushing and demand remains robust. Our forecast for the average WTI price to hit US$93.50/bbl and US$94/bbl in 2012 and 2013 respectively is therefore subject to upside risks.