Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that Japan's oil consumption was 4.48mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011, or 1.64bn bbl per year. Hence, even if all 100mn bbl of shale oil that the Akita prefecture could hold is recoverable, it will only account for slightly less than 10% of Japan's annual consumption. Our forecasts show that Japanese oil consumption will remain above 4.40mn b/d in the next 10 years despite weak economic growth, as the shutdown of its nuclear reactors temporarily increases the share of crude oil in its energy mix.
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