Bayesian network-based methodology for selecting a cost-effective sewer asset management model

摘要

This paper presents a methodology based on Bayesian networks (BN) to prioritize and select the minimal number of variables that allows predicting the structural condition of sewer assets to support the strategies in proactive management. The integration of BN models, statistical measures of agreement (Cohen's Kappa coefficient) and a statistical test (Wilcoxon test) were useful for a robust and straightforward selection of a minimum number of variables (qualitative and quantitative) that ensure a suitable prediction level of the structural conditions of sewer pipes. According to the application of the methodology to a specific case study (Bogotas sewer network, Colombia), it found that with only two variables (age and diameter) the model could achieve the same capacity of prediction (Cohen's Kappa coefficient = 0.43) as a model considering several variables. Furthermore, the methodology allows finding the calibration and validation percentage subsets that best fit (80% for calibration and 20% for validation data in the case study) in the model to increase the capacity of prediction with low variations. Furthermore, it found that a model, considering only pipes in critical and excellent conditions, increases the capacity of successful predictions (Cohen's Kappa coefficient from 0.2 to 0.43) for the proposed case study.