I analyze the problem of determining the optimal economic strategy for exploitation of a fish population when the stock has been driven to a low level and is threatened with extinction if over-exploitation continues. Two very simple models are investigated in detail and only very simple optimization techniques are used. Whether the optimal strategy, namely that which maximizes present value, is one that leads to conservation or extinction depends on economic factors which are partially determined by public policy, such as tax structure. In some economic situations the optimal strategy will always lead to extinction, and in these cases a policy of conservation requires direct government intervention through quotas and other restrictions; in other cases the choice between conservation and extinction can be affected by purely economic policies. I hope that this type of analysis will make it possible for societies to identify the most efficient methods of encouraging conservation while minimizing economic dislocation and direct government control.
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