Effectiveness of national air pollution control policies on the air quality in metropolitan areas of China

摘要

Understanding the effectiveness of national air pollution controls is important for control policy design to improve the future air quality in China. This study evaluated the effectiveness of major national control policies implemented recently in China through a modeling analysis. The sulfur dioxide (SO_2) control policy during the 11th Five Year Plan period (2006-2010) had succeeded in reducing the national SO_2 emission in 2010 by 14% from its 2005 level, which correspondingly reduced ambient SO_2 and sulfate (SO_4~(2-)) concentrations by 13%-15% and 8%-10% respectively over east China. The nitrogen oxides (NO_x) control policy during the 12th Five Year Plan period (2011-2015) targets the reduction of the national NO_x emission in 2015 by 10% on the basis of 2010. The simulation results suggest that such a reduction in NO_x emission will reduce the ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO_2), nitrate (NO_3~-), 1-hr maxima ozone (O_3) concentrations and total nitrogen deposition by 8%, 3%-14%, 2% and 2%-4%, respectively over east China. The application of new emission standards for power plants will further reduce the NO_2, NO_3~-, 1-hr maxima O_3 concentrations and total nitrogen deposition by 2%-4%, 1%-6%, 0-2% and 1%-2%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the inter-provincial impacts of emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta, which indicated the need to implement joint regional air pollution control.