Brent crude prices will average just over $107/bl in the fourth quarter and just under $107/bl in 2012, according to an Argus survey of analysts (see table). The same group forecast prices of $109/bl and $111/bl, respectively, three months ago (AGM, 25 July, p2). Expectations of swift production growth in Libya are partly responsible for the downward revision. Consultancy CGES expects Libyan output to hit 700,000 b/d by the end of this year and 1.8mn b/d in late 2012. Most analysts surveyed put Libyan output at over 500,000 b/d by the end of 2011 and 1mn b/d midway through next year.
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