New modelling army

摘要

Oil price formation has become a much more complex beast. Forces acting on oil prices have multiplied since Opec decided two months ago to leave the job of balancing supply to the market. Even marginal production costs are just one of the many factors in the calculus now. The financial health and geographical distribution of producers in the US tight oil sector and other high-cost non-Opec provinces, as well as greater storage availability, are also key. How these factors affect each other is something that an army of analysts is now trying to model.