All shook up

摘要

Complacency sets in easily in oil markets. Crude benchmarks had remained at $60-65/bl between mid-April and the end of June — the most oversupplied quarter in years, by the consensus of forecasting agencies — which made the timing of the sudden $4-5/bl shift down this month all the more surprising. Oil prices waited until the traditionally higher-demand third quarter to break below their well-established range. Underlying fundamental oil balances show a sustained correction was doubtless needed and must remain in place to have a proper impact on a market that looks as if it will be in surplus next year too.