Projection of Future Precipitation in Bangladesh at Kharif-II Season Using Geospatial Techniques

摘要

Bangladesh is immensely dependent upon agriculture, which significantly relates to climate. Climate change is threatening Bangladesh's food production. Predicting future precipitation changes is crucial for smart agricultural planning and adapting to climate change. Kharif-II (Mid-July-Mid-October) is one of the crop seasons of Bangladesh when most crops depend on precipitation, especially rice production. This study attempted to create precipitation maps of Bangladesh divided into two reference periods (1970-2000 and 2010-2018) and mid-century (2040-2060) for July to October by projecting precipitation results from 19 global climate models of CMIP5 and comparing reference periods precipitation with mid-century precipitation. The study adopts different geospatial techniques to assemble and analyze climate data, generate precipitation maps for July to October, and compute precipitation data division-wise. Throughout the Kharif-II period, precipitation will increase in mid-century except in August, where monthly precipitation will have a chance to fall compared to the reference period. The study also reveals that the Mymensingh division will experience a dramatic increase in precipitation along with Sylhet, and Rajshahi will also see some rise in precipitation in mid-century (2040-2060) than the two reference periods (1970-2000 and 2010-2018).