OPEC Must Produce 38 Million B/D of Crude in 2030 for World Liquids Supply and Demand to Be in Balance,Says ExxonMobil

摘要

In its latest report on world energy prospects,which has just been published,ExxonMobil forecasts that world demand for liquid hydrocarbons-crude oil,condensate,natural gas liquids and other liquids-will reach 108 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2030,up from 86 million boe/d in 2008.For its part,the International Energy Agency(IEA)projects in the reference scenario of its World Energy Outlook 2008 that world oil demand excluding biofuels will reach 106 million b/d by 2030(see our reports in AOG,16 Nov and 1 Dec,2008).The forecast contained in ExxonMobil's Outlook for World Energy:A View to 2030 is nevertheless 8 million boe/d lower than the corresponding estimate in the previous edition of this report(published in 2007).The main explanation for this downward revision is that the U.S.company now estimates that potential efficiency gains in the industrial and transportation sectors could be greater than it first thought.