International Long Product Market Analysis

摘要

The devaluation in the Yuan since the beginning of this year has hada mixed impact on Chinese mills. The Yuan declined from 6.09 Yuanper dollar to 6.40 over the past two weeks. MBR estimates that theimpact of this from a raw materials perspective has been to raise thevalue of iron ore imports (on a 62 Fe, normalised to Qingdao basis)by around RMB 15-20/t. However the impact on rebar export prices hasbeen to increase them by RMB 95-100/t in local terms, further boostingmargins. Hence we expect that the net impact on Chinese exports tocome, will be that Chinese exporters could bring prices back downfollowing the recent substantial hike of $15-20/t at the beginning ofthis month, if they felt export performance needed to be bolstered.Indeed this week Chinese rebar export prices have shed $5-10/t of thegains achieved last week, settling at around $315-320/t FOB.